工業股喘息一日後繼續熱炒，創科(0669.HK)(0669.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)受惠花旗調高盈測及評級，升破周三高位($2.6)，現報$2.64，急升17%，成交已有2190萬股。
花旗將創科評級由「沽售」調高至「買入」，並調高其08年核心盈測44%，料09年盈利受惠原材料跌急升，及再融資獲銀行支持；惟目標價由7.8元下調至3.9元，風險評級則由「適中」升至「高」。
花旗表示，創科有能力將於2008年1.8億美元貸款中的一半，再融資為兩年期貸款，反映其獲銀行支持。該行估計09年付還債務降至1.34億美元，2010為降至1.15億美元。
花旗表示，原材料及零件價格下跌，佔90%銷貨成本，有助改善09年毛利，預期09年盈利會急升。
Friday, January 9, 2009
Thursday, January 8, 2009
波司登 Bosideng (3998)
Bosideng is China's leading down apparel (羽绒服) manufacturer in China. It went IPO in Hong Kong in Oct 2007, traded at $3.50 at that time and has since declined to current share price of $0.76. I would recommend this stock because:
Business
+ Market leader with 40% market share, way higher than the #2 player
+ Streamlining operations by folding unprofitable outlets, as well as improving product mix and increasing average selling price by 5-6%... with raw material prices coming down, margins should improve though sales could moderately decline
+ Leveraging the Bosideng brand to move into non-down apparel and looking at M&A opportunities
Valuation
+ Strong balance sheet, with net cash of $4.5Bn or $0.58 per share
+ Trading at 5x P/E vs 5-10x for comps Giordano, Texwinca and Ports Design. On first glance, Bosideng doesn't look that cheap, but given Bosideng has a lot of cash on hand, its ex-cash P/E (which I believe is the right methodology to look at this stock) is only 1x, far cheaper than its comps
Financials
+ EPS is expected to be largely stable at $0.16-0.20 range for next two years, though estimates could come down somewhat due to challenging economic environment, but probably not significantly
+ Op Cashflow turned positive in the first half of the current fiscal year
+ Results announced for first half of current fiscal year seemed poor but if one looks more closely, the results are not really as bad, as a lot of items were non-recurring and Apr-Sep'08 were warm months which are traditionally weak for down apparel sales obvious so financials were skewed to the downside because of fixed costs... the financials should "normalize" in the second half of current fiscal year, and should provide stimulus to stock price when announced (May-Jun 2009 time frame)
Technical
+ Management aggressively buying back shares from open market ($240MM from Apr-Jun 2008, or 2.8% of total shares outstanding), and they plan to spend another $500MM buying back shares… shows that the management believes shares are undervalued, and provides buying support for share price
I would rate this stock as medium risk / high potential return. Key risks include deterioration of financials (significant decline in sales and margins) and governance. But again, given net cash of $0.58 per share, downside is 25%, assuming floor price is net cash level. Assuming EPS of $0.12 (to be conservative, analyst consensus estimate is $0.16) and ex-cash P/E of 5x, the shares should be worth $1.20, which represents upside of 55%.
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I'd like to note that, while my portfolio performance of +44% since its inception on Dec-1-2008 (vs +7% for Hang Seng Index in the same period) is good, it doesn't mean that much because the time period is very short. Also, I would also like to emphasize the importance of doing your own homework before investing.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
hsi: 15583 (+20 points)Friday, January 2, 2009
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