一百萬元基金倉

Sunday, December 27, 2009

資本策略(497.hk)

公司將會在12月28日(星期一)公佈業績.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

CAPITAL STRATEGIC (資本策略, 497.HK) - RECOMMEND BUY

I have studied this Company for three weeks and my takeaways are:

Capital Strategic (497.HK) is a very good company with a unique business model.  Chairman Mico Chung, Value Partners and Templeton all bought at $0.19-0.24 level.  The stock has also been recommended by "Master Win" in NOW Business News.

The Company will announce its first-half results in December 28.  The results will be very good due to a) one-off gains from CB redemption (~HK$200 million), b) disposal of properties (~HK$60-80 million), c) gains from investments held for trading purpose (~HK$50-100 million) and d) rental income (~HK$50-70 million).  Even though the Company has already announced a positive profit warning, I don't believe that the market price has fully reflected this yet.

The Company has many exciting projects that will come to market in the next 3 years, so the value of the Company will be gradually unlocked.  It is also venturing into the property market in Mainland China, especially Shanghai, which is a promising proposition, I think, given the need to refurbish/reposition some of the properties in Shanghai and the lack of players with similar skill sets as Capital Strategic.

Given the run-up in property prices in Hong Kong and China for the past 12 months, Capital Strategic's property and land portfolio is very valuable.  Capital Strategic's NAV is around HK$3.5 billion.  The Company's market cap of HK$1.8 billion represents ~50% discount.

THIS STOCK IS A SHORT-TO-MEDIUM TERM BUY.  TARGET PRICE IS >$0.35 WITHIN ONE YEAR (VERSUS $0.23 CURRENTLY).

Thursday, December 3, 2009

3V Capital's research report on Emperor Int'l (163.HK)

3V Capital published a research report on Emperor Int'l (163.HK) today.  Their recommendation is BUY and target price is HK$2.60.

See report here:

https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B7h43MoiTlxyYzM0YTk3NGEtZWE0Ni00ZTZlLWJiMTQtMGFmNzI4ZjBhNzQz&hl=en

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

英皇國際轉賺 13億

 英皇系兩公司公佈截至 9月底止中期業績,英皇國際( 163)半年業績虧轉盈,賺 13.24億元,每股盈利 68仙,派中期息 4.8仙;英皇娛樂酒店( 296)半年純利按年增 1.95倍至 5127.5萬元,每股盈利 5仙,中期息 2.5仙。

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

英皇國際 163.HK 剛公佈中期業績

英皇國際業績漂亮,派息超過本人預期. 明天開市股價理應續升.
目標價調升至$2.40.

業績詳情:
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20091201/LTN200912011155_C.pdf

Sunday, November 29, 2009

英皇國際(163.HK)下週二(12月1日)公佈中期業績

皇國際(163.HK)將下週二(12月1日)公佈中期業績 


預計業績物業重估收益,資產出售收益強勁租金收入推動於市場預期公司有機會恢復派息。這將吸引基金經理購買。公司的資產淨值約為3.3至3.5,目前的價格50%以上的折讓。主席在過去一個月繼續在$ 1.4以上水平從市場買進股票代表他公司業績的信心儘管上週發生迪拜世界事件(其中恆生指數下跌1000多點)國際股價還可以站穩1.5元


我預股價將短期內升到$2.0因此我建議在目前水平買

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

good news on 1126: 德林國際(HK)獲1,800萬美元新訂單

德林國際(HK)獲1,800萬美元新訂單
鉅亨網新聞中心  (來源:世華財訊)
2009 / 11 / 16 星期一 17:37

德林國際宣佈,已獲得一份價值1800萬美元毛絨玩具銷售合同。
德林國際(01126)11月16日發佈公告稱,公司已經從一位來自巴西的新客戶獲得一份價值1800萬美元毛絨玩具銷售合同,預期09年底前會完成其中約220萬美元的銷售,其餘將於2010年5月底前付運。
(劉國輝 編輯)
免責聲明:本文所載資料僅供參考,並不構成投資建議,世華財訊對該資料或使用該資料所導致的結果概不承擔任何責任。若資料與原文有異,概以原文為準。世華財訊資訊中心:editor@shihua.com.cn 電話:010-58022299轉235

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Still in the game- Hong Kong Standard

Still in the game

Derek Yiu

Monday, November 09, 2009



The toy industry was badly hit by the credit crunch last year. Poor consumer sentiment in the West saw key players such as RBI Holdings (0566), Kiu Hung Energy Holdings (0381) and Matrix (1005) turning in lackluster performances.(......Con't)

Monday, November 9, 2009

財話短說 樓市好轉 英皇料轉賺 (轉載自<蘋果日報>)

http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20091107&sec_id=15307&subsec=15320&art_id=13394720

英皇國際( 163)發盈喜,預期截至 9月底止中期業績虧轉盈,主因近期物業市場好轉,令集團投資物業的公允價值跟隨變動。

Friday, November 6, 2009

週德林國際(1126.HK了很多,原因是彩星玩具(869.HK最近的活動觸發了投資者憧憬。我然相信,德林的股價將在宣布2009年全年業績(及恢復股息)後0.65 或以上。時間應該是20103月中

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

德林走出低谷 擬派末期息

德林走出低谷 擬派末期息
2009年9月29日

【明報專訊】毛絨玩具製造商德林國際(1126)執行董事總經理李泳模表示,公司業績已「見底」,相信經營將會持續改善,現正考慮在全年度業績時派末期股息,派息比率或達盈利的三分一,唯他強調,對經濟前景仍較為謹慎,派息與否需視乎全年業務表現。德林上半年業績轉虧為盈,錄得盈利3890萬元,不派中期息。

他 績稱,玩具業整合令部分競爭對手遭淘汰,市場整體產能下降,令公司市場佔有率增大,聖誕接訂單情因而按年有所上升。他相信,公司下半年銷售額將有望繼續 提升,並有信心毛利率可維持上半年27.3%的水平。另外,公下半年資本開支約300萬美元,主要用於越南新廠投資及營運。

Monday, September 28, 2009

Dream Int’l (1126.HK) 2009 interim results

The 2009 interim results of Dream Int’l (1126.HK) came out last Friday night and was better than I expected, with sales growing 13% YoY and gross margin being very strong at 27% (up from 13% in the first half of 2008).

The Company also booked a $21m gains from disposal of Jiangsu plant (originally thought it would be booked in second half of 2009) and paid 6% effective tax rate (thought it would be 15%).

So overall net profit was $38m, which is a great number. The Company’s balance sheet is very strong with $200m cash and $50m debt, and it also seems to be managing its working capital well.

I expect the Company to make another $30-35m in net profit for second half of 2009, bringing total net profit in 2009 to $68-73m. And I anticipate that the Company will resume paying dividends for full-year 2009 (after skipping for 3 years) of 0.05/share.

Given the strong set of results, I think the Company’s share price should reach $0.60 (1x P/B) within two months, and $0.80 within a year (7x P/E, 6-7% dividend yield).

RECOMMEND BUY NOW AT $0.42. TARGET $0.60 BY NOVEMBER 2009 AND $0.80 BY SEPTEMBER 2010.

p.s. you may download the interim report from: http://www.dream-i.com.hk/tc_chi/announce.html

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Dream (1126.HK), AMVIG (2300.HK), HuaFeng (364.HK)

After reviewing the interim results of Sewco (209.HK), I have revised downwards my sales expectation for Dream Int'l (1126.HK) in 2009. On the other hand, Sewco's gross margin was much better than I expected (i.e. rose from 5% in 1H'2008 to 15% in 1H'2009). Sales decline and margin expansion should offset each other to a large extent for the bottom line. Overall, my expectation for Dream Int'l remains the same. Dream Int'l will have a great year in 2009.

Two new stock ideas I developed --

AMVIG (, 2300.HK, $3.4 now)- stable cigarettes packaging industry, AMVIG is #1 market leader with 12% market share, stable margins, strong cash flow, net cash position (i.e. cash > debt) after recent disposal of an under-performing subsidiary. Stock price has been over-penalized these days. Target price is $4.8-$5.4, representing 12x of what I see as the normal, post-subsidiary disposal EPS of $0.40-$0.45. Big upside if the company pursues further business acquisitions or if there's a privatization / takeover bid (AMVIG would actually make a very good MBO/LBO candidate).

HuaFeng (華豐, 364.HK, $0.33 now) - reputable textile company, Huafeng has demonstrated resilience in earnings during economic downturn. EPS for 2009 is expected to be around $0.075 (excluding one-time gain of $0.06), representing 4.4x P/E. P/Book is 0.33x. Management has publicly said that there has been a pickup in orders since June 2009. Huafeng has net cash of $267m (vs. market cap of $409m) that should support generous dividends for next few years. Target price is $0.52-0.60, representing 7-8x (which is the normal, mid-cycle P/E range) of expected EPS in 2009, without giving any consideration to the net cash. Big upside if the management declares large special dividends.

I don't think I'll be able to come up with any more new stock ideas for next two months (it's a very time-consuming process), but I'll *try* to post weekly on this blog for updates about companies that I have recommended and/or other general market observations and/or interesting research reports that I come across (e.g. the JPMorgan one).

Thursday, September 17, 2009

德林國際(1126.HK)

德林國際(1126.HK)的股價今天再漲18%$0.42而且成交量進一步上升。我認為,期內(810)合理價格$0.60(代表還40上漲空間)期內(12)有一定風險

p.s. 研究另一間上市公司(衣業),如結果值得分享,我在兩至三個星期張貼

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

德林國際(1126.HK)

德林國際(1126.HK)的股價今天漲了22%而成交量配合且是近月之最,但股價仍然遠低於其內在價值。建議在$0.31-0.33附近累積。

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

德林國際(1126.HK)的中期業績

另一毛絨玩具製造商祟高國際(209.HK)將於9月21日公佈中期業績。你應注意該公司的整體盈利能力,特別是毛利率。這對德林國際的中期業績(於9月25日公佈)有參考作用。請注意,德林國際歷來的利潤率均高於祟高國際

Monday, September 14, 2009

潛在10倍股

有一份新的JP Morgan研究報告關於"潛在10"。想要的話,請在這裡sign-up:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?hl=en&formkey=dGVxVDFHZ1RxT082YjJEUV9oRzdJaXc6MA..

大概會每2-3個工作天發一次。

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Dream International (德林國際, 1126.HK)

I am reading the book, Security Analysis, by Graham and Dodd. I will put Dream International (德林國際, 1126.HK) in context and see how well it fits the authors' value investing criteria, and share my sights later here.

Those of you who bought or are waiting to buy the stock must be anxious to see the Company's 2009 interim results that are due in late September. I would note that for a toy manufacturer, revenue in second half of the year is typically 30-40% higher than that in first half, because of Christmas orders. And due to the presence of fixed costs, net income is normally more than 30% higher in second half compared to first half. So one would likely underestimate the full year result by simply multiplying first half result by two.

I did a back-of-the-envelope estimation of Dream International's 2009 financials, and I'm hopeful that the Company can achieve HK$10-15 million net profit for first half with no interim dividend, and HK$45-55 million net profit for second half with full year dividend of HK$25-30 million or 4-4.5 cents per share. And I would say that while I have a reasonable chance to be off for first half, I feel very confident about full year. If that happens, after full year result announcement and dividend resumption, share price should go above $0.60 (more than double current share price).

And for those who bought already, I would preach that you be patient and hold for at least 8 months. I know it's difficult to do, but whenever you have an urge to sell, just think about how much upside you will miss by selling early.

- Blogmaster

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

英皇國際報告

有一份新的研究報告關於英皇國際(163.HK)。如果想要,請email
2005mhk18@gmail.com
索取。

Sunday, September 6, 2009

德林國際(1126)

近日我和德林國際(1126)的一位高層管理人員交流。儘管他沒有明確說明,我得到的印象是公司預計在2009年可以取得良好的業績,以及公司可能選擇不支付中期股息(即2009年上半年),但分發全年股息的可能性很高。公司將在本月底公佈其2009年上半年業績。

此外,我又花了兩個星期研究這個公司,我堅信,股價將在兩年內超過$1。

Friday, August 21, 2009

Share price to go up 150%-200% within one year

A listed toy doll manufacturer has lost money in the past 3-4 years and has stopped paying dividends, but there are signs that the business will turnaround in 2009. The reasons are:

Macro environment

a) improved industry structure as half of the 8,000 toy manufacturers in China folded in 2008 (so less price competition, etc.)

b) better operating environment (e.g. less RMB appreciation, slower labor rate inflation, lower oil price)

c) inventory re-stocking of US and Europe customers in general after running down their inventories in 2008

d) Chinese government increased export tax rebate from 11% to 14%

Company-specific

e) company received new significant orders received from Disney

f) company streamlined cost structure (e.g. layoffs, moving factories to Vietnam)

In fact, some evidence of business turnaround can be seen in the company's 2H'2008 results, where it managed to achieve a small profit (the first profit-making period in the past 3-4 years). The Chairman also sounded cautiously optimistic in his statement in the 2008 annual report. Interestingly, the Chairman of another listed major toy doll manufacturer said he expected a profit in 2009 (vs. significant loss in 2008) and that 1Q'2009 margins were strong, providing important clues to what is to come in 2009.

Besides normal operations, the company is selling one of its factories in China for HK$60m and will book a gain of HK$20m in 2009. Given all the above, the company will likely report strong results in 2009 (HK$40m+ according to my estimation).

The company has HK$196m in cash and HK$145m in debt as at the end of 2008, and with the HK$60m proceeds from the factory sale and improved business performance, there's a good chance that it will resume dividends in 2009. If the company pays a special dividend totaling its net cash (HK$196m - HK$145m = HK$51m) and the factory disposal proceeds (HK$60m), that HK$111m would represent 67% yield (!!!). I don't actually think the Chairman would do that, but that is just to give you an idea of the extent of the dividend possible. Even if the Chairman dividends out the factory proceeds only, the dividend yield would still be 36%.

Anyway, if both the strong results and the dividends happen, share price could easily go up 150-200% within one year, and more within 3 years as the company fully recovers. I think a sustainable, ongoing dividend level (3-4 years down the road) for this company is HK$0.07-0.09. Assuming a required dividend yield of 6-8% (consistent with historical average for this company and its peers), the theoretical share price should be $0.9-$1.3.

The P/Book and P/Sales ratio for this company are 0.4x and 0.2x respectively.

The caveat is that the trading volume is very thin, and one must be patient about "collecting" shares in the market over a period of several week to avoid "jacking up" the share price unnecessarily. The volume should increase dramatically if the company announces strong results and/or resumes dividends.

One risk for this play is if the strong results and dividends DON'T happen, then your money may get "stuck" until the trading volume comes back (well, if you put in $50k, you should still be able to get out easily, but if you are invest $500k, then it'll be much more difficult). That said, I do very strongly believe that good things will happen in 2009, and weighing the potential risk and return, and assuming that your investment horizon is at least 12 months, I would still highly recommend BUY.

The company is Dream International (德林國際, 1126.HK).

Friday, August 14, 2009

《蘋果日報》股場放大鏡:工業股要吼嘉利

2009年08月14日
從事代工生產的工業股嘉利國際( 1050),去年業績也不錯,截至 09年 3月底止全年營業額 24.61億元,按年下跌 12%,不過純利就大升 68%至 2208萬元,每股盈利為 3.8仙,末期息 1.5仙。在收入下降的情況下,純利仍有上升,主要是由於人民幣減慢升值,同時原材料價格回落,成本壓力減輕。
近年人民幣升值、勞工、油價及鐵料 等成本上升,對工業股不利,嘉利透過開源節流包括精簡人手、減少參與割價產品的產銷,以提升效益,同時審慎擴充,保持財政良好, 3月底止淨現金 4000多萬元。這隻曾是 David Webb聖誕推介的工業股一向企業管治出色,參考其他前度聖誕推介如愛高( 328)、富士高( 927)近月股價升幅以倍數計,嘉利也有機會隨時跑出。
歐陽風

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Emperor International, 英皇國際 (163.HK) - Recommend BUY

















12-month target price is $2.0, +67% from current price of $1.2


The Chairman (whom you probably know) is buying a lot of shares from the open market (more than 10 occasions) at around $1.2, and the CB that he issued to Emperor Int'l has a conversion price of $1.2; both of these actions mean that the Chairman is highly confident that the shares should be worth much more than $1.2 (i.e. if he doesn't think he's going to earn at least 20-25% annual return on his capital, he won't do it in the first place).



NAV is the best metric to value Emperor Int'l given that a) it's a property development company and b) the Company's portfolio is relatively young, i.e. many projects will be completed in 2011-2013 time frame.
  • NAV of Emperor Int'l is conservatively estimated to be $3.3 (while $3.8 is more realistic), and the underlying property assets in Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai and Xiamen are of good quality
  • Applying a 40% discount to NAV (big property developers trade at 10-15% discount while smaller ones trade at 30-40% discount) leads to $2.0, which is my target price.

  • Many small-cap property stocks have rebounded in the past 6 months and the extent is much larger than Emperor Int'l so this is a "laggard play" as well, i.e. most of these stocks are already above their Aug 2008 price level, but Emperor Int'l is still only half of its Aug 2008 price level (see chart below).



Emperor Int'l has a FYE of March, and first-half FY 2010 results (i.e. April 2009 to Sept 2009) will be announced in Dec 2009.

  • The results should be very strong due to a) solid rental income, b) significant rebound of the property market since March 2009 (there will be a significant upward revaluation of properties that flows through P&L), and c) HK$143m in profits from 2 pieces of property in Causeway Bay that was sold.

  • Emperor Int'l would likely resume dividend payments upon announcing the upcoming results (there was no dividend payment for previous year).

  • I would expect investors to be positively surprised when the announcement comes out.


Due to its relatively small market cap, Emperor Int'l is not covered by investment banks. The only institution that covers Emperor Int'l is a small investment house called 3V Capital. I think that minimal coverage is a good thing because if a stock is well-covered, then it tends to be more efficiently priced and hence more difficult for investors to achieve above average risk-adjusted return. I believe that Emperor Int'l is NOT efficiently priced, and in time, its stock price will converge to its "true" fundamental value.


So overall, my recommendation is to buy at current price and hold for at least 6 months. For those that are concerned about a possible correction in the stock market, I would suggest a phase-in approach, where you buy some every month for next 3-4 months such that you average out your entry price.



原來《信報》都有講1050嘉利國際

轉載自《信報》
信報財經新聞
P29 | 理財投資 | 每日一股
2009-07-22


嘉利受惠經濟谷底回升



   全球經濟有望見谷底,對去年飽受消費放緩及衰退打擊的工業股帶來憧憬,可留意上年度逆市下業績偏穩的公司,顯示其可攻可守能耐。

  嘉利國 際(1050)這間從事產銷電腦外殼及文儀產品等五金塑膠與提供電子專業代工業,其收入頗為全球性。去年依然有亞洲與香港收入上升,而中國與西歐維持最大 收入來源,去年業務先穩後減,公司在面對人民幣升值、勞工、燃油價格及鐵料等成本上升下,透過開源節流包括精簡人手,一年內員工人數下調約22%,減少參 與見血割喉式殺戮的產品產銷,以提升效益。

  公司採取最壞打算、最好準備的態度,令財務狀況穩定。配合自2003╱04年度開始的擴張及 自動化計劃,令規模效益得以發揮,令2008╱09年度五金塑膠業務營業額下跌5%;但經營溢利升28%,至6172萬元。不過,電子專業代工依然有 3871.2萬元虧損,2008╱09年度溢利上升55%,至2043.3萬元;每股盈利為3.8仙。隨着客戶情況有所改善,而生產成本部分已回落,而其 玉泉及宜興新廠一、二期工程已完成,無疑公司對市場展望依然有保留,亦是該公司予投資者有信心的特質,被視為具透明度及良好企業管治的工業股,如相信經濟 逐步回升,亦是有利於中線收集的不錯對象。

Monday, August 10, 2009

Monday, August 3, 2009

會儘快update100萬元基金倉

因優質股發掘人在 recommend之前入了嘉里國際(1050)。

-erica

Saturday, August 1, 2009

+15.38%

1050.HK嘉利國際

最新價: 0.600

Up 0.08 (+15.38%)

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Karrie International (1050.HK) - Recommend BUY

Karrie International (1050.HK) - Recommend BUY



Target price is $1.2, +130% from $0.52 now



· Karrie's profit margin is poised to recover, because a) many competing OEM/ODMs have folded during the economic downturn, b) very few new entrants in the past 24 months due to low industry profitability and lack of bank credit, c) gross margin outlook for Karrie's customers is stable (alleviating pressure for, say, Epson to beat up their OEM/ODM, e.g. Karrie), d) raw material prices (e.g. steel, plastic) have come down, e) labor inflation in China has alleviated, and f) Karrie has cut back staffing and adopted other measures to reduce costs in the past 12-18 months. Given all the above, profit margin is very likely going to recover in the short- to medium-term. In fact, one can see that profit margin has already started to recover since September 2008.



· Karrie managed to do $2.5-3.5b in Sales and 5-6% Net Margin in normal, good times. While I think the industry's margin is structurally lower, it's conceivable that Karrie will be able to go back to $2.5b in Sales (not to mention that Karrie spent $400m in capex for the past few years, which in theory, should boost its capacity, i.e. Karrie can handle probably $5-6b in Sales if there are orders), and 4% Net Margin. As such, "normal" Net Income would be $100m, which is almost 5x the current Net Income level (because current Net Margin is only 1%). Industrial OEM/ODMs normally trade at 7-9x P/E, so "normal" equity valuation for Karrie should be $700-900m, translating to "normal" share price of $1.1-$1.5.



· While a company's stock price should in theory driven by the future cash flows discounted by a rate of return, book value is a good (albeit not perfect) metric to gauge what value one can get out of the company, if one were to buy it, repay the debts and sell all assets. Karrie's book value per share stands at $1.2.



· Karrie will hold an AGM in late-August 2009 to approve a share buy-back program for up to 10% of issued shares. Purpose of the program is to put the Company's cash ($640m) to best use, e.g. boost EPS/BVPS. If this happens, and given the trading liquidity of the shares (which is reasonable but not high), it would be provide a lot of upward momentum for Karrie's share price.



· Karrie's balance sheet is very healthy and the Company is in a net cash position (i.e. cash of $640m and debt of $605m so net cash of $35m). Karrie's operating cash flow is very strong as well, and capex will be much less in the next 2-3 years (i.e. the Company has already expanded enough for possible demand in the next 6-8 years).



· Karrie has recently formed a JV with a listed Taiwanese OEM/ODM manufacturer called Teco. Teco managed to maintain gross margin of 25-30% in the past few years. If that is any indication to the gross margin level of the JV, this would be very positive to Karrie, though any meaningful contribution will take 2-3 years to materialize.



· Overall, this one is a medium risk / high return play, and the theme could take 18-24 months to fully play out, so I would advise against buying if one's investment horizon is only a few weeks or months. But for those that can be patient, and even though share price has already doubled from the $0.265 bottom reached in November 2008 (market picking up signals that Karrie's business is improving), there is still significant room for share price to run up (the extent of the possible recovery is not yet fully priced in). The stock has only minimal correlation with the broader Hang Seng Index, so even if you expect a correction of the latter, you can still buy the stock right now. But again, you should always do your own homework before making any investment decision.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

又發掘了一隻優質股

有一隻研究了3年的股票,預計股價會在2年內會升200% 。

詳情會在10天內公佈。

p.s.希望讀者早前有買創科(669)和中視金橋(623),前者升了209%,後者則升了153% 。(恒指同期升了47%)

Monday, March 2, 2009

AMVIG (2300.HK) is a good buy

澳科控股有限公司 (2300.HK) Analysis to follow later.

Friday, January 9, 2009

創科(0669.HK)急升17%,花旗調高盈測及評級

工業股喘息一日後繼續熱炒,創科(0669.HK)(0669.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)受惠花旗調高盈測及評級,升破周三高位($2.6),現報$2.64,急升17%,成交已有2190萬股。

花旗將創科評級由「沽售」調高至「買入」,並調高其08年核心盈測44%,料09年盈利受惠原材料跌急升,及再融資獲銀行支持;惟目標價由7.8元下調至3.9元,風險評級則由「適中」升至「高」。

花旗表示,創科有能力將於2008年1.8億美元貸款中的一半,再融資為兩年期貸款,反映其獲銀行支持。該行估計09年付還債務降至1.34億美元,2010為降至1.15億美元。

花旗表示,原材料及零件價格下跌,佔90%銷貨成本,有助改善09年毛利,預期09年盈利會急升。

創科 (0669) 今天(1月9日)升18%,收市升30%

用一半現金買入 波司登(3998)

@
$0.76

Thursday, January 8, 2009

波司登 Bosideng (3998)

Bosideng is China's leading down apparel (羽绒服) manufacturer in China. It went IPO in Hong Kong in Oct 2007, traded at $3.50 at that time and has since declined to current share price of $0.76. I would recommend this stock because:

Business

+ Market leader with 40% market share, way higher than the #2 player

+ Streamlining operations by folding unprofitable outlets, as well as improving product mix and increasing average selling price by 5-6%... with raw material prices coming down, margins should improve though sales could moderately decline

+ Leveraging the Bosideng brand to move into non-down apparel and looking at M&A opportunities

Valuation

+ Strong balance sheet, with net cash of $4.5Bn or $0.58 per share

+ Trading at 5x P/E vs 5-10x for comps Giordano, Texwinca and Ports Design. On first glance, Bosideng doesn't look that cheap, but given Bosideng has a lot of cash on hand, its ex-cash P/E (which I believe is the right methodology to look at this stock) is only 1x, far cheaper than its comps

Financials

+ EPS is expected to be largely stable at $0.16-0.20 range for next two years, though estimates could come down somewhat due to challenging economic environment, but probably not significantly

+ Op Cashflow turned positive in the first half of the current fiscal year

+ Results announced for first half of current fiscal year seemed poor but if one looks more closely, the results are not really as bad, as a lot of items were non-recurring and Apr-Sep'08 were warm months which are traditionally weak for down apparel sales obvious so financials were skewed to the downside because of fixed costs... the financials should "normalize" in the second half of current fiscal year, and should provide stimulus to stock price when announced (May-Jun 2009 time frame)

Technical

+ Management aggressively buying back shares from open market ($240MM from Apr-Jun 2008, or 2.8% of total shares outstanding), and they plan to spend another $500MM buying back shares… shows that the management believes shares are undervalued, and provides buying support for share price

I would rate this stock as medium risk / high potential return. Key risks include deterioration of financials (significant decline in sales and margins) and governance. But again, given net cash of $0.58 per share, downside is 25%, assuming floor price is net cash level. Assuming EPS of $0.12 (to be conservative, analyst consensus estimate is $0.16) and ex-cash P/E of 5x, the shares should be worth $1.20, which represents upside of 55%.

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I'd like to note that, while my portfolio performance of +44% since its inception on Dec-1-2008 (vs +7% for Hang Seng Index in the same period) is good, it doesn't mean that much because the time period is very short. Also, I would also like to emphasize the importance of doing your own homework before investing.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009